The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts

Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters’ judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.monetary policy, survey forecasts, inflation uncertainty, heterogenous beliefs and expectations, monetary aggregates

Emotion concepts

The goal of this task is to investigate emotional categories across linguistic and cultural boundaries. There are three core tasks. In order to conduct this task you will need emotional vocalisation stimuli on your computer and you must translate the scenarios at the end of this entry into your local language

An investigation into vocal expressions of emotions: the roles of valence, culture, and acoustic factors.

This PhD is an investigation of vocal expressions of emotions, mainly focusing on non-verbal sounds such as laughter, cries and sighs. The research examines the roles of categorical and dimensional factors, the contributions of a number of acoustic cues, and the influence of culture. A series of studies established that naive listeners can reliably identify non-verbal vocalisations of positive and negative emotions in forced-choice and rating tasks. Some evidence for underlying dimensions of arousal and valence is found, although each emotion had a discrete expression. The role of acoustic characteristics of the sounds is investigated experimentally and analytically. This work shows that the cues used to identify different emotions vary, although pitch and pitch variation play a central role. The cues used to identify emotions in non-verbal vocalisations differ from the cues used when comprehending speech. An additional set of studies using stimuli consisting of emotional speech demonstrates that these sounds can also be reliably identified, and rely on similar acoustic cues. A series of studies with a pre-literate Namibian tribe shows that non-verbal vocalisations can be recognized across cultures. An fMRI study carried out to investigate the neural processing of non-verbal vocalisations of emotions is presented. The results show activation in pre-motor regions arising from passive listening to non-verbal emotional vocalisations, suggesting neural auditory-motor interactions in the perception of these sounds. In sum, this thesis demonstrates that non-verbal vocalisations of emotions are reliably identifiable tokens of information that belong to discrete categories. These vocalisations are recognisable across vastly different cultures and thus seem to, like facial expressions of emotions, comprise human universals. Listeners rely mainly on pitch and pitch variation to identify emotions in non verbal vocalisations, which differs with the cues used to comprehend speech. When listening to others' emotional vocalisations, a neural system of preparatory motor activation is engaged

Meson production in two-photon interactions at energies available at CERN Large Hadron Collider

The meson production cross sections are estimated considering photon-photon interactions in hadron - hadron collisions at CERN LHC energies. We consider a large number of mesons with photon-photon partial decay width well constrained by the experiment and some mesons which are currently considered as hadronic molecule and glueball candidates. Our results demonstrate that the experimental analysis of these states is feasible at CERN - LHC.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, 4 tables. Version published in Physical Review

Non-verbal expressions of emotion - acoustics, valence, and cross cultural factors

This presentation will address aspects of the expression of emotion in non-verbal vocal behaviour, specifically attempting to determine the roles of both positive and negative emotions, their acoustic bases, and the extent to which these are recognized in non-Western cultures

More than one kind of happiness: Can we recognize vocal expressions of different positive states?

Several theorists have proposed that distinctions are needed between different positive emotional states, and that these discriminations may be particularly useful in the domain of vocal signals (Ekman, 1992b, Cognition and Emotion, 6, 169–200; Scherer, 1986, Psychological Bulletin, 99, 143–165). We report an investigation into the hypothesis that positive basic emotions have distinct vocal expressions (Ekman, 1992b, Cognition and Emotion, 6, 169–200). Non-verbal vocalisations are used that map onto five putative positive emotions: Achievement/Triumph, Amusement, Contentment, Sensual Pleasure, and Relief. Data from categorisation and rating tasks indicate that each vocal expression is accurately categorised and consistently rated as expressing the intended emotion. This pattern is replicated across two language groups. These data, we conclude, provide evidence for the existence of robustly recognisable expressions of distinct positive emotions

Vocal expressions of emotion and positive and negative basic emotions [Abstract]

Previous studies have indicated that vocal and facial expressions of the ‘basic’ emotions share aspects of processing. Thus amygdala damage compromises the perception of fear and anger from the face and from the voice. In the current study we tested the hypothesis that there exist positive basic emotions, expressed mainly in the voice (Ekman, 1992). Vocal stimuli were produced to express the specific positive emotions of amusement, achievement, pleasure, contentment and relief

Effects of ursodeoxycholic acid on synthesis of cholesterol and bile acids in healthy subjects

Background/Aims: Ursodeoxycholic acid ( UDCA) decreases biliary secretion of cholesterol and is therefore used for the dissolution of cholesterol gallstones. It remains unclear whether these changes in biliary cholesterol excretion are associated with changes in cholesterol synthesis and bile acid synthesis. We therefore studied the activities of rate-limiting enzymes of cholesterol synthesis and bile acid synthesis, 3-hydroxy-3-methyl-glutarylcoenzyme A reductase and cholesterol 7alpha-hydroxylase, respectively, in normal subjects during UDCA feeding. Methods: UDCA was given to 8 healthy volunteers ( 5 men, 3 women; age 24-44 years) in a single dose of 10-15 mg/kg body weight for 40 days. Before and during ( days 3, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 40) UDCA treatment, urinary excretion of mevalonic acid and serum concentrations of 7alpha-hydroxy-4-cholesten-3-one (7alpha-HCO) were determined as markers of cholesterol and bile acid synthesis, respectively. The Wilcoxon signed rank test and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient were used for statistical analysis. Results: Cholesterol synthesis and serum lipid concentrations remained unchanged during UDCA treatment for 40 days. However, synthesis of bile acids increased during long-term treatment with UDCA as reflected by an increase in 7alpha-HCO serum concentrations from 39.7 +/- 21.3 ng/ml (median 32.8 ng/ml) before treatment to 64.0 +/- 30.4 ng/ml (median 77.5 ng/ml) at days 30-40 of UDCA treatment ( p < 0.05). Conclusions: UDCA treatment does not affect cholesterol synthesis in the liver, but does increase bile acid synthesis after prolonged treatment. This may represent a compensatory change following decreased absorption of endogenous bile acids as observed with UDCA therapy